America had negative migration for the first time in over 50 years, but there's a catch

Image for article: America had negative migration for the first time in over 50 years, but there's a catch

Joel Abbott

Jan 14, 2026

Trot out that "Got What I Voted For" meme, because you're gonna need it:

Here, if you don't have your meme handy, you can borrow mine:

This report comes courtesy of the Brookings Institution, a D.C. research organization that is the most-cited think tank by U.S. media and politicians.

While Brookings is generally centrist (being located in D.C., this translates to "pro-Uniparty"), the organization is rated left-leaning by Media Bias / Fact Check, and Open Secrets reports Brookings has given 96% of all political donations to Democrats since 1990 (word on the street also says they are liberal).

Now that we have a firm grasp of the obvious, let's peruse the report:

'We estimate net flows of -295,000 to -10,000 for the year,' the Brookings study stated. 'Though a high degree of policy uncertainty remains, continued negative net migration for 2026 is also likely.'

The report attributed the shift to combination of the large drop in entries and an increase in enforcement activity leading to removals and voluntary departures.

The Trump administration's suspension of many humanitarian programs -- including most refugee programs with the exception of those involving white South Africans -- and a decline in temporary visas also contributed to the negative net migration, the report said.

Notice how ABC News doesn't say "South Africans," but emphasizes "white" to connect Trump to "white" people?

Why do you think ABC put it that way without explaining that the minority Boer farmers are literally facing genocide?

So what's the "catch"?

Brookings says the Trump admin has only deported half of the aliens it claims to have removed from the country.

The report's authors estimate there were between 310,000 and 315,000 removals in 2025, a figure lower than what the administration has claimed. Department of Homeland Security officials claim that, so far, more than 600,000 people have been removed during the crackdown.

'At 310,000 to 315,000, the 2025 removals are not much higher than the 2024 removals of around 285,000,' the report states.

If true, that is devastating. It means, despite media hype from the White House, actual forcible deportations are not happening anywhere NEAR where they need to be, though self-deportations certainly skyrocketed.

Brookings agrees, however, that deportations are likely to increase en masse with the additional funding given to ICE and U.S. Border Patrol under last year's Big Beautiful Bill.

Border encounters are also at record lows (as it turns out, enforcing the law dissuades criminals from breaking the law).

Brookings claimed, of course, that this negative migration would hurt "muh GDP," because migrants are our strength!

According to the report, authorities also predict the net migration loss will see certain sectors of the economy experience 'unexpectedly weak economic activity'...

Wait till you see what's after that ellipsis I inserted.

...specifically businesses that serve affected immigrant populations.

You mean the Somali daycares will close?? How horrible!

'The slowdown implies weaker employment, GDP, and consumer spending growth,' the report states, adding that consumer spending is expected to fall by between $60 billion and $110 billion over 2025 and 2026.

This has been the ongoing claim for the past year. Various "experts" on both sides of the aisle have argued that negative migration and tariffs will tank the economy.

And yet 👇

Perhaps the biggest question is not what the exact deportation numbers will be in 2026, but why every other president for the last 50 years allowed mass migration into the United States, even when the American people explicitly pushed Congress to pass laws to protect the border.


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